Monday, February 16, 2026

Based Book Sale Last Days

Zero Point: A Quantum Adventure is number four in the Based Book Sale on Substack. All books are 99 cents or free. Here's the update from the organizer:

D.W. Patterson is in fourth with 25 sales for Zero Point: A Quantum Adventure. Jack Carson had a stroke of luck; a great-uncle had left him land in Arizona. But that’s when Jack’s luck began to change, mysterious sights and sounds threatened to make his inheritance worthless as a center for the study of physics. Marta Merritt decided to help, and she didn’t think it a mystery, she thought it was an artifact of a forgotten physics theory called pilot-wave mechanics.

Patterson definitely grabbed me with “pilot-wave mechanics.” Check this one out!

Saturday, January 31, 2026

What a Beautiful World This Will Be

(Title from Donald Fagen, IGY Lyrics).

The CEO, Dario Amodei, of Anthropic, one of the leading AI labs believes that strong AI is only 1-2 years away, probably 2027. And once strong AI is available, 100 years of progress in biology, medicine, economics, etc. will happen in 5-10 years, or 2032-2037.

As I [Dario Modei] wrote in Machines of Loving Grace [Essay, October 2024], powerful AI could be as little as 1–2 years away, although it could also be considerably further out.

I think the best way to get a handle on the risks of AI is to ask the following question: suppose a literal “country of geniuses” were to materialize somewhere in the world in ~2027. [From The Adolescence of Technology – Amodei, January 2026]

To summarize the above, my basic prediction is that AI-enabled biology and medicine will allow us to compress the progress that human biologists would have achieved over the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years. I’ll refer to this as the “compressed 21st century”: the idea that after powerful AI is developed, we will in a few years make all the progress in biology and medicine that we would have made in the whole 21st century.

Possibilities (Predictions):

Reliable prevention and treatment of nearly all natural infectious disease. [Fast evolving strains like those that develop in hospitals may be more difficult to eradicate].

Sunday, January 25, 2026

Zero Point Available

My new novel
Zero Point is now available at a special price on my website and will be available everywhere February 7.

The blurb:

Jack Carson had a stroke of luck; a great-uncle had left him land in Arizona.

But that's when Jack's luck began to change, mysterious sights and sounds threatened to make his inheritance worthless as a center for the study of physics.

Marta Merritt decided to help, and she didn't think it a mystery, she thought it was an artifact of a forgotten physics theory called pilot-wave mechanics.

To build the center they would have to find out, and they would have to stay alive to do so.

Sunday, January 4, 2026

AI 2027

 
AI 2027 is a roadmap for developing AI. It was created by the AI Futures Project in 2025. It lists several technologies and predicts when they might occur from now until 2030. I have taken the technologies and grouped them into AI 2027's three groupings, Exists, Emerging, and Science Fiction. Then I note as the years pass which group each technology moves to, the final being existing. Note that this is their original prediction, some things may have changed, see their website and blog for more.

Mid 2025
Exists
Image Recognition
Game Learner
Language interpreter
Creative writer
Robotaxi
Image generator
Code interpreter
Conversational AI
Expert chatbot (PhD levels)

Sunday, December 28, 2025

World forces - H.G. Wells

Photograph by George Charles Beresford

As Wells looked back from the vantage point of 1934:

World forces were at work tending to disperse the aristocratic system in Europe, to abolish small traders, to make work in the retail trades less independent and satisfactory, to promote industrial co-ordination, increase productivity, necessitate new and better informed classes, evoke a new type of education and make it universal, break down political boundaries everywhere and bring all men into one planetary community. The story of my father and mother and all my family is just the story of so many individual particles in the great mass of humanity that was driving before the sweep of these as yet imperfectly apprehended powers of synthesis.... An outburst of discovery and invention in material things and of innovation in business and financial method, has, we realize, released so much human energy that, firstly, the need for sustained toil from anyone has been abolished, secondly, practically all parts of the world have been brought into closer interaction than were York to London three centuries ago and, thirdly, the destructive impulses of men have been so equipped, that it is no longer possible to contemplate a planet in which unconditioned war is even a remote possibility. 

We are waking up to the fact that a planned world- state governing the complex of human activities for the common good, however difficult to attain, has become imperative, and that until it is achieved, the history of the race must be now inevitably a record of catastrophic convulsions shot with mere glimpses and phases of temporary good luck. We are, as a species, caught in an irreversible process. No real going back to the old, comparatively stable condition of things is possible; set-backs will only prolong the tale of our racial disaster. We are therefore impelled to reconstruct the social and economic organization until the new conditions are satisfied.