The CEO, Dario Amodei, of Anthropic, one of the leading AI labs believes that strong AI is only 1-2 years away, probably 2027. And once strong AI is available, 100 years of progress in biology, medicine, economics, etc. will happen in 5-10 years, or 2032-2037.
As I [Dario Modei] wrote in Machines of Loving Grace [Essay, October 2024], powerful AI could be as little as 1–2 years away, although it could also be considerably further out.
I think the best way to get a handle on the risks of AI is to ask the following question: suppose a literal “country of geniuses” were to materialize somewhere in the world in ~2027. [From The Adolescence of Technology – Amodei, January 2026]
To summarize the above, my basic prediction is that AI-enabled biology and medicine will allow us to compress the progress that human biologists would have achieved over the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years. I’ll refer to this as the “compressed 21st century”: the idea that after powerful AI is developed, we will in a few years make all the progress in biology and medicine that we would have made in the whole 21st century.
Possibilities (Predictions):
Reliable prevention and treatment of nearly all natural infectious disease. [Fast evolving strains like those that develop in hospitals may be more difficult to eradicate].
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